The question a CEO asks is not "what is AEO", it is "what does this cost me". Here is a model you can fill in within ten minutes.
The calculation
You need four variables:
- V: monthly searches in your category (across your 10-15 key questions).
- A: share of those queries already resolved inside an AI assistant instead of a classic search engine.
- C: your usual visit-to-customer conversion rate.
- T: average customer value (deal size or LTV).
Estimated monthly loss = V × A × (1 − mention rate) × estimated CTR × C × T
A realistic example
A B2B company with 8,000 monthly category searches, 30% of them already resolved in assistants, a 20% mention rate, a 12% CTR on the recommendation, 3% conversion and a €1,800 LTV:
8,000 × 0.30 = 2,400 AI queries
2,400 × 0.80 (no mention) = 1,920 lost queries
1,920 × 0.12 = 230 potential visits
230 × 0.03 = 7 customers per month → roughly €12,600 of monthly LTV left on the table.
Why the cost grows by itself
- The share of queries resolved in AI rises every quarter; factor A only moves one way.
- AI answers concentrate the recommendation on 2-3 brands: there is no "page two" to recover from.
- The effect compounds: the brand AI names gets more human mentions, which reinforce the model's signal.
What to do with the number
Use it for two things: justify the budget and set a target. If your mention rate goes from 20% to 45%, the same model tells you how much you recover. Without measuring the mention rate week over week, neither conversation is possible.